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INT-1989-11-18


Doc Type: 
Intelligence Report
Date: 
1989-11-18
Author: 
CIA
Full Title: 
NIE 11-18-89 The Soviet System in Crisis: Prospects for the Next Two Years
Language Type: 
English
Pages: 
8

This consensus view of the U.S. intelligence community two weeks before Malta helps explain the lack of urgency on the part of the Bush administration to wrap up arms control deals with Gorbachev.  This Estimate assumes that the current crisis in the USSR would continue even beyond the two-year timeframe, that "the regime will maintain the present course," that Gorbachev was "relatively secure" in his leadership role, and there was a less likely scenario of "unmanageable" decline that would lead to a "repressive crackdown."   In hindsight, the dissenting view from the CIA's Deputy Director for Intelligence, John Helgerson, is more correct, predicting more progress towards a "pluralist – albeit chaotic – democratic system" in which Gorbachev's political strength would "erode" and he would "progressively lose control of events."